Wizard Rewind

How to stop the slide

2006-11-27T15:53:00.000-08:00

Things aren't looking so good. The Wiz are already five games below .500 and a dismal 0-7 on the road. The offense has been just OK. The defense has been very so-so. And this team still gets out-rebounded by a pretty good margin, and despite the emphasis on offense, the Wiz are credited with fewer assists per game than their opponents. On an individual level, Gil is shooting under 40% from the field, Jamison is rebounding less than usual, Caron is turning the ball over a lot, Jarvis Hayes is shooting horribly and two of our most frequent free throw shooters (Etan and Brendan) both shoot below 48% from the charity stripe. What is going on here? How does Washington fix this?

I'm going to work under the assumption that this isn't the result of players who don't care or a lousy coach. I know these guys play with passion and I'm positive that EJ is a competent coach. But obviously, something isn't right. I'm not going to pretend to know what is happening in the locker room, or that I know more about basketball than the Washington coaching staff, so I'm just going to propose an idea to get things jump-started: shake this team up a little.

Tell players to try different things. Give minutes to other players. Pull a trade, even if it isn't a massive one. But do something, and do it quickly.

Jamison is rebounding less than last year and shooting worse from 3pt range than he has in the last four years. Suggest that he stay inside a little more and cut his PT. Not as punishment, but the guy played competitive ball and traveled all summer. He needs a rest and he might be more useful for the time being if he played 30 minutes per game instead of 37.

Gil is shooting poorly from the field. Encourage him to look to get other players more involved. Tell him that the team might benefit more if he took 17 shots per game instead of 20. That he would be even more highly regarded and valuable if he averaged 24 points and 9 assists instead of 26 points and 6.5 assists. Taking fewer shots would presumably increase his shooting percentages, too (he would pass up more contested shots).

Give Antonio Daniels more minutes. He looks to pass, he takes care of the ball, plays solid defense and scores more points per shot than anyone on the team except for Etan. So why can't he play 32 minutes per game? Right now, he's getting fewer than 27. And playing him more would relieve Gil of some of his ball-handling duties, saving him for things other than bringing the ball up the floor all the time.

These are just some suggestions. Here is what my lineup and minutes-distribution would look like:

1: Gil (25), AD (23)
2: DeShawn (22), Gil (14), AD (9), Hayes (3)
3: Caron (28), DeShawn (10), Hayes (8), Blatche (2)
4: Jamison (30), Caron (6), Blatche (8), Ruffin (4)
5: Etan (24), Haywood (18), Ruffin (6)

So that adds up to mpg of:
Gil – 39
Caron – 34
Jamison – 30
AD – 32
DeShawn – 32
Etan – 24
Haywood – 18
Ruffin – 10
Blatche – 10
Jarvis – 11

As usual, feel free to call me an idiot, but I feel like something has got to change here.

I like what we have, but we still need more inside

2006-11-20T22:18:00.000-08:00

I was at the game against Cleveland on Saturday night. I gotta say, I liked what I saw. Gil was unconscious, Brendan showed some attitude by handing Damon Jones the ball after blocking his shot and Jamison came up with some nice steals. What impressed me most though, was DeShawn Stevenson. He looked confident and more than competent.

He seemed to be in the right place at the right time all night and he did a fantastic job when he was put on LeBron. I can't say how great it is that we have a player like him that we're only paying a mil per year for. So, I was very happy with the Wizards on Saturday night, but it is still pretty obvious that we have zero inside presence. The guys missed a ton of layups and they just got muscled all night. So what does Grunfeld do about that? I know I've said it before, but I'll say it again: the second round is the ceiling for this team until it gets a legitimate inside player. Of course, that's easier said than done.

Grunfeld, even though he overpaid, was smart in getting Darius Songaila. Although I have a strange feeling that in four years I'm going to read that last sentence again and shake my head. Anyways, Songaila was a nice pick up, but he's not the answer. He's a start, but we need more. The Wiz need someone who is going to get the tough rebound when we really need it. The guy who is going to pound inside and create space for our perimeter game. We need someone who is going to toughen this team up. To address this we could either turn to the draft, free agency or trading. The draft is too uncertain and generally takes a few years to really see results. There aren't really any great bigs in the free agent class of 2007. So that leaves us with trading. So, let's take a look at our assets.

We've got first and second round picks that could always be part of a deal. Then, here are the guys that I'd be willing to part with: Jamison, Etan, Haywood, Blatche, Pecherov, Hayes, Ruffin and Donell Taylor. I'd be willing to let Jamison go, because we presumably would be getting a power forward in return and Jamison also has a big contract. I'd be willing to give away Blatche and Pecherov because this squad might be ready to really win before either of those guys are ready. Anyways, here are the targets that we ought to be looking at:

Kevin Garnett – I'm not going to bother going in to all the ways in which he could help this team. He's a stud and he's going to be traded. Minnesota needs to blow things up and start over, so they might welcome something like Jamison, Blatche, Pecherov, a future 1st rounder and maybe a couple 2nd round picks.

David West – He's tough and is a solid rebounder. He is much more of an inside player than Jamison, as well as being much younger.

Zaza Pachulia – Not quite in the same class as the first two, but he could probably be had for relatively little. He could be an upgrade in the middle for sure. Possibly not enough of an upgrade though.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim – Pretty good perimeter player, but he can clearly play down low, as evidenced by his playing center this season for the Kings. I like him, but I'm not sure exactly how much he would help this team.

Brad Miller – He has a pretty big contract, but he is a very good rebounder, he's tough and he's a good passer. In addition, he can shoot three's and score in the post. I'm having a hard time thinking of a reason not to make a move to get him, unless of course we can land Garnett. Something like Jamison and Haywood for Miller, Corliss Williamson and Francisco Garcia. Jamison's probably wouldn't be a big deal to them, seeing as how he has two years left on his, to Miller's five. And we could always throw in a draft pick or something. The more I look at this deal, the better I like it. (Realgm.com's trade checker approves this deal).

So once again, we need an inside player. I'm voting right now for Garnett, but if we can't get him, let's make a run at Brad Miller.

Billy Hunter

2006-11-16T16:10:00.000-08:00

What is the Executive Director of the Players Association doing? I don't mean that he is doing something outrageous and I want to know why. I mean, what is he doing? The dress code, the crackdown on arguing with the refs, the restrictions on arm bands, the restriction on shifting ones' weight during the national anthem (no joke, David Stern wants the players to remain motionless while the anthem is being sung), the fines for untucking ones' jersey while sitting on the bench, the fines for wearing a rubber band with your name on it, the age limit and last and worst, the new ball. These are all changes that have been implemented in the last two years. And for the life of me, I can't see anything that Billy Hunter has done for the players. Literally, he has done nothing.

I'm assuming that Hunter goes to work every day. I'm assuming that his subordinates work hard in assisting him. But I can't figure out what they are assisting him with. Because if he has been working hard, then it's got nothing to do with representing the players. He caves on every proposal that David Stern makes. He gets next to nothing for the players and yet, almost nobody really questions his competence. How does he still have his job?

I'm bringing all of this up because of John Hollinger's look at the statistical impact of the new ball. He notes that statistically, it has made almost no difference at all. That may be true, but that doesn't mean that it hasn't changed the way the game is played (and not necessarily for the better). Even if the new ball doesn't have a huge effect (the Wizards might disagree though, after Vince Carter's BS trey to send a game into overtime), why is the ball a good thing? The players, the media and the fans all agree that the new ball sucks. So why is it a good idea? I have yet to hear any answer other than, "Now, every ball is the same. It's all uniform." All that means is that every ball is equally crappy. And it's not like the old ball had major consistency problems. So again, why the new ball?

Renaldo Balkman for All-Star!

2006-11-15T12:04:00.000-08:00

OK, so I know that Renaldo Balkman is not on the Wizards. But, he's taken a lot of crap over the last five months for something he couldn't control. I mean, it's not like he could have stopped Isiah Thomas from picking him 400 picks too early (in a 60 pick draft). So, he's been getting ripped by everyone for something that he couldn't control. I say, it's time to do something nice.

So, I'm proposing a Renaldo Balkman for All-Star campaign. If you go to http://www.nba.com/allstar2007 you can vote once every 24 hours.

Balkman isn't on the regular ballot, but the ballot has a write-in section. So, everyday, go to the site and select him as a write-in candidate.

I'm serious about this. Let's make this guy an All-Star.

I'm not the biggest fan of the new ball

2006-11-14T10:18:00.000-08:00

I know I'm a couple days behind on this, but I can't believe the Wiz lost to New Jersey. For everyone who missed the replays of Vince Carter's shot that sent the game into overtime, it was complete BS. He even admitted as much. The ball hit the back of the rim, which if it were a real basketball, it would have bounced back out to the 3pt line. This piece of crap ball stopped dead on the back of the rim and fell through the net. I do think that Sports Guy is on to something, saying that this ball is being played in order to increase scoring. Shots that would have looked gawd-awful, are dropping. This is a travesty. How can anyone even appreciate a higher score if everyone knows that it's bogus? OK, I'm ranting now. I'll get on to better things now.

I'm actually going to be at the Wiz game on Saturday when they play the Cavs. I figured that I had to go to this game, since I've never seen LeBron in person. I can't remember if I ever saw Jordan play. I remember going to a Bullets/Bulls game, but I have no real memory of it. Anyway, I'm not going to let that happen with LeBron. Or Gil. These guys are just too good to only watch on TV. I can't begin to express how excited I am about this game. To quote Homer Simpson, “I feel like a kid in some kind of a shop.”

I am probably going to have too much to do this week, so I'm telling all four of you readers to check back here on Sunday. I'm sure I'll have something good to post.

Whose fantasy is this?!?!?

2006-11-10T09:49:00.000-08:00

I hate Gerald Wallace. I hate Andrei Kirilenko. I really really really hate Boris Diaw. The problem here is that I like all three players a whole lot, but they are killing my fantasy team. Wallace seems to have forgotten how to steal the ball or block shots. Kirilenko can't figure out how to score, pass, rebound or steal the ball. Diaw hasn't figured out anything except the five fast food joints that are closest to US Airways Center. Damn these guys.

In my league, each team is allowed to keep two players from the prior season. Last year I had Gerald Wallace, Andrei Kirilenko, Boris Diaw, Brad Miller, Lamar Odom and Rafer Alston. (fyi, in my league, you play head-to-head, start 2 g, 2 f, 1 c. We keep track of pts, reb, ast, stl, blk, to) So I was definitely going to keep Kirilenko. At the end of last year, Diaw was available to play at all three positions. Thinking that would carry over, I kept him, too. Turns out he can only play guard and forward. That was already a blow to my team. Then came the draft.

In order, I took Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton, Andrew Bogut, Kendrick Perkins, Bonzi Wells, Mo Williams, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Banks, Ryan Gomes and Jackie Butler.

Wallace is off to a horrible start, averaging under 10 pts, only 4 reb, 1.3 ast and 1.2 stl, .8 blk and 1.75 to. Compare that to last year: 15.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.5 stl, 2.1 blk, 1.8 to. Holy crap. What happened in the last 5 months?

Kirilenko is off to a similarly crappy start. I think he is actually averaging in the negatives for points. All of his numbers are way off what they have been the last few seasons. Hey, thanks AK47. You AKforty-suck.

Felton has been a disappointment. His scoring and assists are not what I had hoped they would be.

Bogut has been only mildly disappointing. His numbers are horrific, but they could and should be better. It would be nice if he blocked the occasional shot.

Perkins has been god-awful. I thought this was going to be a break-out year for him. I was expecting him to be a solid reserve at center to the tune of about 8 pts, 8 reb and 1.5 blks. That didn't seem unreasonable. Now, it seems that we're more likely to see him running the point than we are to see him post decent numbers consistently.

Bonzi has barely played, but I expected that. If he can do what he did last year, I'll be happy.

Mo Williams has been a little disappointing. I didn't think he was going to light the world on fire, but I was hoping for something in the Mike James range. His rebounds and assists are pretty decent, but his scoring needs some help. And the occasional steal would be welcome.

K-Mart is getting knee surgery! The other day, one of the other owners offered me Maggette straight up for K-Mart. I declined, saying that it wouldn't really improve my team and I'm not going to make moves just to make them. Then I read a couple hours later how Martin is having knee surgery. Holy crap. Now I'm trying to decide whether to drop K-Mart, forfeit the rest of my season, go to a Nuggets game and yell at K-Mart, or maybe do all three.

I dropped Banks, Gomes and Butler. That Gomes move was pretty stupid in retrospect. Although to fill those three spots, I've got Kevin Martin, Andris Biedrins and Hakim Warrick. So I'm pretty happy with that.

So you thought I forgot about Boris Diaw? Oh no, I saved the worst for last. He's averaging 8.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 2 ast, 0 stl, .4 blk. On the bright side, he is turning the ball over more than in any other season in his career. So right now, one of my keepers is my #9 guy. At the forward spot, he's behind Warrick, AK47 and Wallace(a G/F). At guard, he's behind Felton, Williams, Wallace and Martin. I need to move on to another topic before I start typing in all caps and saying things I might regret later.

Anyways, long story short, my fantasy team absolutely sucks so far. Thank the lord that at least the Wizards look pretty decent.

Can you tell that I'm psyched?

2006-11-08T22:06:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the Wizards wreck the Pacers tonight, but just looking at the box score, I like what I see. Gil dropped 40 off of only 20 shots. We got 17 points, 12 boards, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 blocks and 4 turnovers from the center position. Now, I know that isn't spectacular, but it's enough. A couple days ago, I said we need to get 17, 13 and 3 or 4 blocks out of the Etan/Brendan duo and just look at the result tonight. Yeah, we still got out-rebounded, but we're getting better. The story of the night though, isn't that we dropped 37 on them in the 3rd quarter (hell yeah!), the story is that my man Andray Blatche got to run tonight!

Blatche played 18 minutes and didn't shoot well, but he pulled down 7 boards and stole the ball a couple times. Seriously, if we can get him 10-12 minutes per game, there's no telling what he'll be able to do by the end of the season. Just look at Andrew Bynum. He worked hard for a year and all of a sudden the guy is dominating. So if we can't find a way to get Blatche on the floor for at least 10 minutes per game, then we've got to either send him down to the D league to get some PT, or hire someone to work with him one-on-one. Kareem has been working with Bynum for the last year. Is there any way that we could get someone like Danny Manning to work with Blatche everyday? OK, I've got to get ahold of myself; I'm starting to sound like a cheerleader. Anyways, I know that the season hasn't started perfectly, but there's a lot to be excited about right now.

Things aren't going terribly, but they could be better

2006-11-07T19:36:00.000-08:00

So yesterday, I started writing a piece about how the Wiz could easily win every game this week, but that they would have to do a better job on the boards. We are the worst rebounding team in the league and Orlando holds it's opponents to a paltry 29 rebounds per game. Well, we out-rebounded them and still lost. Etan dominated on the inside, pulling down 15 boards and blocking six shots. That is exactly what we need. But somehow, we lost. So, after last night, I'm wondering what exactly does this team need to do to win? Luckily, I think I have answers.

#1- Our inside play needs to consistently be close to what it was last night. I know we aren't going to get 14, 15 and 6 every night from Etan, but there is no reason that between him and Haywood, we can't get 17 pts, 13 rebounds and 2 or 3 blocks per game. The key here though, is consistency. We won't even make the playoffs unless we cure our allergy to rebounds. Pretty good teams have a good offense. Great teams have a good offense AND good defense and rebounding. Right now, we are just a pretty good team.

#2- Make sure that chemistry isn't suffering. Apparently, Etan and Haywood got into a fist fight the other day in practice. That must have been quite a sight. This could be a problem though. One of the best things about this team is the continuity. We've had Haywood, Etan, Gil, Antawn, Ruffin and Hayes together for a full three years now. This seemed to be a pretty close-knit team, especially now that Gil has come out and said that he wants Stevenson to stick around. Now, this fight might just be nothing- the result of two passionate guys playing hard in practice. I'm hoping that's the case, but if the chemistry on this team suffers, then we're in trouble.

#3- Make free throws. Guys, it is a 15 ft. shot. You get 10 seconds to set yourself up and you aren't guarded. I recently started playing ball again after a 4 month layoff due to injury. After shooting for a couple days, I'm back to 80% from the charity stripe. I know there isn't anyone in the background yelling and waving their hands, but if I played everyday for the next month, I'm pretty confident that I could hit at least 80% in a game situation. So is there a reason that a guy who has played almost every day for the last 10 years or so, can't hit 70%? I just will never understand that.

I know it's a little early to panic, so I'm trying not to. But these are things that shouldn't be too tough to address. Let's hope that EJ gets these things ironed out so that we can make a run at 47 wins.

More of those Quick Hits

2006-11-03T12:52:00.000-08:00

Good lord, another post! This is unprecedented. I had to weigh in though, now that we've seen every team play. I also felt compelled to add to my quick hits from last time.

Chicago looked amazing in their opener against Miami. Not so much last night. They have more experience than a year ago, but they are still very young, so consistency could still be an issue with them. And I know that I'm basically stealing Sports Guy's material here (although adding to my own as well), but I still want to know who is going to score on that team. As SG pointed out, two years ago they won 47 games mostly due to their defense. Last year, they only won 41 because the NBA changed some rules that emphasized scoring. The Bulls couldn't score, so they weren't quite as good. And they didn't address that issue in the off-season. So, now I'm not sure what they are going to do this year.

Hakim Warrick is good. Yeah, he needed to hit both free throws at the end of the first OT, but he still had a very good game. I'm excited about his potential.

Isiah Thomas is about to completely crash and burn. To be more accurate, his crashing and burning (which has been going on for three years) is about to reach a peak. New York blew a 19 point 4th quarter lead to a team that was playing without its best player and giving major minutes to Lawrence Roberts and Antonio Burks. And after the game, Isiah couldn't stop saying how proud he was of his guys. Pride? Your guys blew a 19 point lead in twelve minutes! If he needs an example of how to handle that situation, this is about what Greg Popovich would have said if the Spurs did what New York did last night:
“Our guys were completely awful. That was just an embarrassing game. We dribbled too much, we committed too many turnovers and our defense was non-existent. I don't know how these guys expect to crack the 10-win mark this season, because we'll be lucky to get to three wins if we keep playing like that.”
Note to Isiah: You don't praise guys who mail it in during the 4th quarter, but then play hard enough to keep from completely embarrassing themselves.

There were some rusty players out there last night. Gil, Steve Francis and Andrei Kirilenko all threw up sub-par performances last night. I guess that's to be expected to some extent in the first game, but it was still a little disappointing.

Paul Pierce has heart. A lot of it. On the night that Boston honored the late, great Red Auerbach, The Truth wore a headband with the #2 on it (the # that Boston retired in Red's honor) and proceeded to pour in 29 points and haul down 19 rebounds. That's a hell of a game. How could anyone not like this guy? “The Truth” really is the most appropriate nickname for him.

Rasheed Wallace is hilarious. He spent the last couple weeks whining about David Stern's order to the officials to not tolerate the constant bickering that players engage in with the refs during a game. Sheed didn't let us down last night, drawing two technical fouls and being thrown out of the game. And the second T wasn't even a protest about a call against him (he didn't like a call that went against Nazr Mohammed).

Mike Dunleavy is a disaster. Don Nelson said ass much after Warriors game last night. He's making something like $3 trillion over the next 5 years and he can't shoot, rebound, pass, or guard anyone. Obviously, Chris Mullin used to hang out with Isiah Thomas. How else to explain giving a massive extension to a guy with no discernible skills?

As the season progresses, I'll be posting more of this kind of article. For now though, let me say that I like where Washington is headed. Even with an off-night for Gil, the Wiz almost beat Cleveland at their home court. Etan was productive and the team is just going to gel nicely – I can feel it.

Quick Hits to Start the Year

2006-11-01T16:11:00.000-08:00

I know, posting two days in a row has become pretty unusual for this blog, but I'm gonna try to change that. I felt obligated to write something today, because the first two games of the NBA season were last night. So, here are some quick hits:

PJ Brown is much bigger and better than I thought. For some reason, I thought he was like 6'9”. Yeah, he's actually 6'11”. He's freaking huge. And he isn't much of an offensive player, but the Ben/PJ tandem is going to make scoring on the inside against the Bulls nearly impossible. Hence, Shaq's 7 point, 5 rebound performance last night.

Miami is old. Really, really old. I didn't think it was possible, but Antoine Walker looks even less athletic than he did a year ago. People don't make enough of a deal about that. He might be the slowest guy under 6'10” in the league. And I don't think that I have ever seen him dunk. Anyways, Shaq looks just like a 34 year old who hasn't done anything to take care of his body in the last six years. He looks that way, because that's exactly what he is. Zo looked pretty damn old, too. No way does this team reach the Eastern Conference finals this season. Especially not after their families put senile Zo and senile Gary Payton in a nursing home in March. Although, removing Payton might be a good thing at this point. Scratch that – it would definitely be a good thing for Miami.

Andrew Bynum is much better than I expected. Last season, he looked like he had promise, but he was just too raw. I saw him in one preseason game and he looked pretty good. Then he goes out and takes it to the Suns' front court. This kid is seriously good. He has to be the early early early front runner for Most Improved Player. I wish I had picked this guy up in my Fantasy league.

Phoenix needs to play Jumaine Jones. Seriously, they played James Jones, but not Jumaine Jones? Jumaine is the better of the two, by far. And, Maurice Evans (who sucks) dropped 17 on them. You're telling me that they didn't need their third best defensive player last night? LA shot 55% from the field! They aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, so they have to start playing Jumaine.

Sports Guy summed up my feelings about Jared Jeffries and DeShawn Stevenson perfectly today. “Washington: I just enjoyed that they allowed Jared Jeffries to leave for $30 million, then replaced him with DeShawn Stevenson for 1/30th of the price ... even though Stevenson is probably 9/10th's as good a player as Jeffries. That's always fun. People are underestimating these guys, by the way.” Exactly. That falls into the category of what I said about Tyson Chandler/Ben Wallace – sure, Jeffries is a better player than Stevenson, but Stevenson is good enough. And obviously, I agree with him about underestimating the Wiz. Marc Stein has them penciled in for 42 wins and ranked below the Warriors, Hornets, Nuggets and Jazz in his Power Rankings. Chad Ford and John Hollinger both see them missing the playoffs. OK guys, whatever you say.

Gil is about to move into the “great player who everyone says is under-rated so much that he isn't actually under-rated” territory. This happened with Ben Wallace a few years ago. Arenas has been getting a lot of ink this off-season and everyone seems to be picking him to do great things. So how exactly is he under-rated? By the way, I want him to believe that he is under-rated so that he goes out and leads the league in scoring.

So, there are just a few quick thoughts to kick off the season. Enjoy tonights' Wizards/Cavs game.

The Most Over-Rated Signings of the Year

2006-10-31T14:09:00.000-08:00

Last time I took a look at the most under-rated free agent signings of the off-season. Now, I'm going to run down the most over-rated. These are stupid moves, or moves that everyone has made too big of a deal about. So let's get to it, before my school work gets in the way again.

Ben Wallace, Center, Chicago Bulls
Last season, Chicago had arguably the best defense in the league and had an inadequate offense, so they dropped $60mil on a player who can only defend and rebound. They already had Tyson Chandler, who is six years younger and had five years and $54mil left on his contract. True, Chandler is not as good as Wallace, but he was good enough. The Spurs found themselves in a similar position in 2002. They had Tony Parker, but were considering throwing a lot of cash in Jason Kidd's direction. But they figured out that yes, Jason Kidd is far better than Tony Parker, but Parker was good enough. Bulls GM John Paxson hasn't really figured out that concept yet. The only way that this Ben Wallace signing makes sense is if they are somehow able to work a trade for Kevin Garnett (who will definitely be dealt this season).

Peja Stojakovic, Forward, New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets have a nice team now, but they WAY overpaid for Peja. Yeah, they needed a scorer, but not for $64mil. This wouldn't have been too bad if he did lots of things, but he is a mediocre (and I'm being generous here) defender and essentially doesn't do anything but shoot. And you're telling me that they could not have just signed John Salmons and/or Jumaine Jones as a stop-gap solution and then thrown that money at Vince Carter next year? They would have been able to hand at least $14mil per year to Carter while still not hitting the luxury tax threshold. Yeah, this Peja signing wasn't so good.

Speedy Claxton, Guard, Atlanta Hawks
Four years and $25mil to put a quality reserve in a starting role. I actually read articles saying that Atlanta had solved their point guard problem with this signing. First of all, no they didn't. Second, even if you subscribe to that, they only solved the problem for about 50 games. Then they're back to Tyron Lue. That Marvin Williams-over-Chris Paul pick looks worse every day. A great point guard can keep a mediocre team competitive for years, and can take a team to the top. The same can very rarely be said about forwards. Aside from all of that, Claxton will help them some, because he is an upgrade at the point. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking that he is going to take them anywhere.

Jared Jeffries, forward, New York Knicks
I like Jeffries a lot. He is versatile and is a very good defender. But he has almost no offensive skills and on a good team, he should be a reserve who gets about 15-20 minutes per game. And while his 4 year, $30mil contract doesn't seem completely horrible (although it's well on its way to being terrible), you have to remember that the Knicks are paying the Luxury Tax. So, in effect, they are paying $60mil for a reserve forward who is pretty similar to a player that they just drafted way way too high (Renaldo Balkman). I could go on for days about all the boneheaded moves that Isiah Thomas has made, but this one showed his consistency and isn't going to help New York even close to as much as Knicks fans are hoping.

So there is a brief look at some of the most over-rated signings of the off-season. Only time will tell if any of my opinions on this are accurate. We'll start to get an idea tonight though, when the Bulls open the season against the Heat. I for one, can't wait to see Tyrus Thomas block a few shots and throw down a few dunks.

Most Under-rated Signings of the Year

2006-10-30T11:04:00.000-08:00

Once again, college has interfered with a matter of utmost importance. This time it is the impending start of the NBA season. Since there isn't a ton of Wizards news right now, let's take a look at the most underrated moves of the 2006 NBA offseason. These are the low-profile signings and trades that may have just as big an impact as some of the “bigger” signings and trades.

Jumaine Jones, SF Phoenix Suns. This is a guy that I wanted Washington to sign, but he's going to a team that may fit him even better. He's excellent from 3pt range, is very athletic and defends very well. In addition, he can fill in briefly at power forward (as he did last year in Charlotte) if Phoenix really begins to hurt up front. Phoenix needed defense and a team like that can never have too much firepower from long range, so Jumaine Jones signing a one-year contract for under $1mil, may end up being one of the best free agent signings of the year.

DeShawn Stevenson, SG Washington Wizards. I feel for this guy. Stevenson was coming off his best season, averaging 11 points per game and beginning to develop a reputation as a defensive stopper. His agent convinced him that someone would give him the full mid-level exception, so he turned down a 3 year, $12mil contract. Yeah, things didn't quite work out the way his agent said. Stevenson signed with Washington for two years at the league minimum (about $1mil). Washington, for minimum wage, is getting a quality defender, more depth in the back court and more athleticism.

Jackie Butler, C San Antonio Spurs. Butler was New York's second best center last year and is rapidly developing. And at 21 years old, he still has plenty of time to round into a solid player. San Antonio needed some depth in the front court and got it with a 3-year, $7mil contract. Butler rebounds well and has a pretty good offensive game. This signing is going to mean that SA doesn't have to worry too much about the front court this year, but this will be an even better signing a couple years from now when they have a center averaging 14 and 8 while making $2mil.

Bonzi Wells, SG Houston Rockets. Wells is basically in the same boat as DeShawn Stevenson. He thought he was going to get a nice pay day, but things didn't work out. Houston was able to sign him to a two year, $4.5mil contract that leaves Bonzi the option to opt out of the contract after one year (which he will probably do). So now he has to play a year at a low salary and hope that he can get a better contract next year. Houston got a bargain here, snagging one of the best rebounding guards in basketball; a guy who can score and play the passing lanes, too. On top of that, they get Bonzi in what amounts to a contract year, so he should be in line to have his best season as a pro. Houston got some much needed depth and scoring here, and for very little money.

David Wesley, PG/SG Cleveland Cavaliers. Wesley brings some veteran leadership, as well as outstanding 3pt and free throw shooting. Danny Ferry realized that Damon Jones can't be counted on, so he got an older, but much better version of Jones. Wesley also doesn't need to have the ball to play well and has never seemed to have a problem with the team concept. While Damon Jones is making a little under $4mil this year, Wesley will be playing a bigger role for $1.75mil. This was a very nice signing that should continue to take pressure off LeBron.

Nene, PF/C Denver Nuggets. This resigning is underrated in the sense that people don't see just how badly this contract hurts Denver. Nene only played three minutes last season before his right knee exploded. The year before, he only played 55 games. Even in his best season though, Nene only averaged 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. And somehow Denver thought that he is worth $60mil over six years. Denver desperately needs a shooting guard, but has $22mil tied up in the power forward position this year. And both Nene and Kenyon Martin are signed through the '10-'11 season, in which they will combine to make over $30mil dollars. Martin's contract was bad enough, but $60mil for a guy who just tore his ACL and wasn't that good to begin with? Between Kenyon Martin, Carmelo, Andre Miller and Marcus Camby, this team was already hamstrung. But add a $60mil contract on to that and you've got a team that should hover around the 35-40 win mark for the next five years. Nene's re-signing is underrated in the damage that it is going to do to Denver's future.

So there is a quick look at what I think are some of the more important signings that got little attention. Next time, we'll take a look at the most over-rated signings of the offseason.

I guess I'll finally say something nice

2006-10-18T23:02:00.000-07:00

I know that I am pretty critical of the Wizards, but I really do like the direction the team is headed. Apparently, I'm not the only one. NBA.com's season preview for the Wizards is pretty rosy:
http://www.nba.com/preview2006/was.html

I can see why. As the NBA's preview points out, this team has established some great continuity. Grunfeld doesn't make panic trades or overpay and Pollin isn't firing people randomly as it seems so many owners do. We've got a good young nucleus and some good parts around them and ownership seems committed to keeping this crew together. I know I've said this before, but this organization is finally run by professionals. We need some help down low, but it's exciting to see the potential that this team has. Just look at the results from the preseason games so far.

Check out the box score from the Wizard's 93-89 win over the Cavs. Andray Blatche had a terrible shooting night and he turned the ball over three times, but look at his other numbers. Seven boards, five assists, four steals and a couple blocks. In the 100-91 win over the Bobcats, he only played 15 minutes, but still had a rebound, an assist, two steals and a block. And yes, I know this is preseason, which doesn't mean a whole lot, but still. He's coming along nicely and it seems as though he can do a little of everything. He is a major reason to be excited about the future of this team. And look at the timing with him. Just as Jamison begins to decline, Blatche should be ready to take the reigns. Antawn is already 30, and Blatche is only 20. Assuming Andray keeps developing like he has been, this could be a seamless transfer at the power forward spot. It also is kind of nice that, after questions about whether or not Jamison is big enough to play the 4, we'll be having a 6'11”, 250 pound player stepping in. (Is this the worst case in history of a fan talking himself into his team?) But enough about Blatche, look at some of the other guys, like DeShawn Stevenson.

Initially, I wasn't real big on his signing. I didn't think he was much of a player, but we also are paying him about $5.50 per hour, so he couldn't be a terrible signing. I didn't realize though, how good he actually is. He doesn't fill up a box score, but he is a very good defender. And if there is one thing this team needs, it's defense. Before the signing, I didn't really know much about him. Just looking at his percentages, it's pretty clear that he can't shoot. John Hollinger notes that he takes a ton of pull-up 20 footers, which is never a good sign. But who knows, he's still only 25, so he isn't necessarily a finished product yet. While he definitely needs to work on his long range shot and his shot selection in general, his defense will be very welcome.

I'm not going to bother to go through every reason why I like this roster. At least not today. Some of my main reasons though are it's youth, young talent, good coach and good general manager. It's hard to be very critical when an organization is being run like that. I think I'm up to the challenge, though.

How are the Wiz going to join the elite?

2006-10-17T10:12:00.000-07:00

I wrote something to the effect of, “PJ Ramos doesn't look great, but it does seem as though he will give us a little help this season.” Good thing the Wiz cut him a couple days ago. It just goes to show that I'm an idiot. Or maybe Ernie Grunfeld is an idiot. Who can really say? So, what does this mean for Washington?

First, it means that the team is that much thinner in the middle. Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas, Calvin Booth and Michael Ruffin. I gotta say, that list doesn't make me really optimistic about our playoff chances. We'll still make the playoffs, but what happens when we play the Bulls, or even the Cavs? Not that Ramos would have really helped against those teams, but our post crew is going to get eaten alive, again. Ilgauskas, as soft as he is, was too much for Haywood to handle. Going up against Ben Wallace, the rebounding margin is going to be in his favor by a ratio of about 546 to 17. What is this team going to do? I can't think of a top-tier team that hasn't had at least one good inside player.

In the '90's, the Rockets, Knicks, Spurs, Bulls (Longley was passable and Rodman got all the rebounds they needed), Magic, Sonics and Jazz all had at least one player who could really rebound, play D and generally mix it up inside. This century, it's been the Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, Nets, Sixers, Heat, Mavs, Suns and Kings. All of those teams had at least one quality big man. So, you see why this roster is very limited in how far it can go? Grunfeld absolutely has to get a good big man. I know that is easier said than done, but it has to happen. Here are a few scenarios: (feel free to comment on how stupid these are)

1. Wait for Blatche and Pecherov to develop. Gil and Caron will just be hitting their primes and Jamison will probably be on the downside of his career by then. Those two guys could be exactly what this team needs, or they could develop and be strictly perimeter players. Or they could not develop at all. I'm not a big advocate of this plan.

2. Pull a big trade. Garnett is looking for a way out of Minnesota. He's got some young talent around him, but not enough and the Wiz are infinitely more ready to make a title run than the T-Wolves. We give up Pecherov, Jamison and a couple 1st round picks. If that's not enough, we throw in Jarvis and/or Haywood. This might seem like Grunfeld would be overpaying, but you aren't spending too much if it brings you a title. Can you imagine a big three of Garnett, Gil and Caron? And with role players like Etan, Daniels, Songaila and Blatche, that's a damn good team. On the other hand, Minnesota might not want to give KG up. If the Wolves aren't looking playoff-bound around the trade deadline though, look out.

3. Trade for an '07 pick that is likely to be a lottery pick. Give up Hayes and our '07 1st rounder and hope that the pick we get in the trade turns out to be a top-5 pick. Pie-in-the-sky, it snags us Greg Oden. That isn't likely, but we could definitely end up with Florida's Al Horford. I'd be perfectly happy if Grunfeld pulled the trigger on this one.

The Wizards do have options. I like our team right now, but the Wizards aren't going anywhere great without an inside presence. Grunfeld has done a great job with this team, but this is by no means a finished product.

Catching Up

2006-10-03T10:38:00.000-07:00

So, I'm pretty sure that Haley's Comet comes by more often than my posts. That may be a slight exaggeration, but not by much. School has kept me very busy, so naturally, Wizard Rewind goes on the back burner a bit. A fair amount has happened between my last post and the present. The Wizards announced that Oleksiy Pecherov will, in fact, be staying in France (he's from Ukraine, but he plays in France) for another year. John Hollinger broke down the '06-'07 rendition of the Wizards and I have begun preparing for fantasy basketball. First, let's get to Pecherov.

Pecherov is too talented to just ride pine for a year and the NBDL isn't necessarily the best option. The quality of play in the NBDL is often horrid, with little to be learned by a skilled player from guys without any skills to speak of. My guess is that Pecherov would pick apart the NBDL guys pretty quickly. It would be nice though, to see him exposed to the American game. Get him to stick a little closer to the hoop and rebound a little. On the whole though, I like the idea of leaving him in Europe for a year. He won't take up a roster spot or cost the team anything this year. And he ought to have developed a little more by the time he joins the team.

ESPN's John Hollinger recently had a rundown of every NBA team. A review of the past season, off-season moves and an outlook for the coming season. He was, as were a lot of us, generally impressed by the team last year. This club is outstanding offensively. As Hollinger points out, the Wiz rarely turn the ball over and get to the line a lot. And with almost all of our guys shooting over 70% (including Blatche, Hayes, Butler and Daniels all shooting above 83%), the FT's go a long way to making the team successful. His assessment of the defense, wasn't quite as positive as it was for the offense. But I think we all saw that coming.

Hollinger points out that the Wiz ranked 23rd in the league last season in defensive efficiency and opponent's FG%. Just as bad, the team was 26th in the league in defensive rebounding. That's got to change. He agreed with me that the signing Songaila was a good move, but that Grunfeld over-paid. Again, we are going to be paying him close to $5mil per year. Where there any other teams even offering half that? And, as I said before (and Hollinger ripped from me no doubt), we are seriously going to pay this guy that much when he is 33? There is a good chance that he won't be in the league by then. And we'll still owe him $5mil. This wasn't completely thought through when the deal was agreed upon.

Overall, Hollinger sees this team as being about a 47-win squad. Six weeks ago, I pinned my guess at between 46 and 48, so clearly, this is another thing that Hollinger and I agree on.

Now on to the important stuff. Fantasy Basketball. The league uses Yahoo to keep track of points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. I've been in the same league for five years and this is the first year in which we have been able to keep players from the prior season. Each team gets to keep two players. Out of a rotation of Andrei Kirilenko, Gerald Wallace, Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw and Brad Miller and sometimes Rafer Alston, I am keeping AK47 and Diaw. Since Diaw can play every position in this league, I had to keep him. I'm not even going to bother explaining why I'm keeping Kirilenko. I was runner-up in the regular season and lost in the semifinals last year, so obviously, I'm going to have to make a few changes. If you look at my roster, there was almost no scoring whatsoever. I was great in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. I was average in turnovers. But that wasn't quite enough to win it for me. I was never a threat in points and assists and rebounds and blocks were really the only categories in which I could count on a win. So, I've got some research to do. As I'm sure some of you all do, too.

The Centers of Washington

2006-09-18T10:07:00.000-07:00

I'll be the first to admit that my writing leaves something to be desired and that my analysis is not always spot-on. But Marc Stein recently wrote that the Knicks should be able to win 40 games this year. He's usually very good and reasonable, but that's just ridiculous. I'd say that he is drinking the Knicks' Kool-Aid, but I don't think New York is competent enough right now to even dump the powder in the water and stir. And now I'm going to reign myself in before I go on a wild tangent and lose sight of the focus of this post: the bigs for the Wiz. So, without further ado, here is my breakdown of the Washington centers. Hold on tight.

Brendan Haywood – There are a surprising number of fans that are waiting for Haywood to develop into a very good center. I hope they aren't holding their breath. Now don't get me wrong, I like Brendan, but the Wiz are starting one of the best backup centers in the league. He just isn't a legit starter in the league, especially for a playoff team. He does play hard and always hustles. Every now and then, Brendan even throws down a big dunk. He is also the not-so-proud owner of the worst hands in the NBA. OK, maybe that is an exaggeration. After all, Kwame is still in the league, as is Nazr Mohammed. The point is, the other four guys on the floor are pretty confident that if they break down the D, penetrate and try to dish to Brendan, he will probably drop the ball. This is pretty strange, since he actually has a pretty soft touch around the hoop when he actually catches the entry pass. So in summary, I like Haywood, but I'd like him a lot more if he were coming off the bench.

Calvin Booth – Not a lot to say here. He doesn't play much because he isn't very good. Luckily, we don't have a lot riding on him. At least he is in the last year of a very modest contract, which is a lot more than I can say about...

Etan Thomas – Good lord. Where does he rank in the all-time worst free agent signings in Washington history? Certainly in the top three. I know he was actually a re-signing, but that's beside the point. I do like Ernie Grunfeld a whole lot. He's great. But 6 years, $36 million for Etan Thomas? He was already 26, so it's not like we had no idea that he would never have any offensive skills. He was signed two summers ago and since then has played in 118 games and averaged 5.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1 block in about 18 minutes per game. We're paying about $23, 000 for each rebound that he gets. Now I kinda feel bad, because he works hard and leaves it all out on the court and I know he couldn't turn down a stupid amount of money like that, but he is one of the most over-paid players in the league. Oh well, at least he isn't Jerome James.

So that concludes my breakdown of the Wizards lineup. Obviously this could change a bit, especially if Grunfeld brings Pecherov over this season. Then all bets are off. Our front court completely changes at that point, with a small lineup being that much more feasible. Hopefully, things will calm down a little bit at school so I can write more often. Until then, I can make no promises.

The Forwards

2006-09-11T19:46:00.000-07:00

There hasn't been anything on this site in about a week. I know your lives just haven't been complete without knowing what I think about the Wizards' frontcourt. I just started class, so things have been pretty hectic. Moving in and then hitting the books hasn't left much time for important things, like writing about the Wiz. So, without further ado, here is my rundown of the Wizards' forwards.

Caron Butler – Butler came over in the Kwame trade and pretty much made Mitch Kupchak look like a complete idiot. Over the past three years, he has shown flashes of brilliance, but has had a few injury issues that has prevented him from really building any kind of momentum in his development. That is, until last year. He went off, scoring 17.6 points per game and registering career highs in rebounding, FG%, FT%, 3pt%. In addition, he had the 4th best +/- on the team. Clearly, the stats show that he brought a lot to the table, but they don't tell the whole story on Butler. This guy is tough. Like, used to be in jail-tough. If you watched the playoff series against the Cavs, then you know what I'm talking about. He mixed it up inside and played the physical game that this relatively soft team has needed. Now, I'm trying to take an honest look at our forwards, but I'm not sure what to tell this guy to improve. I guess he could work a little on taking care of the ball more and developing a more reliable long-range shot, but he's been pretty outstanding. I think I speak for everyone when I say that he's an upgrade over Kwame.

Antawn Jamison – If Gil is the heart of the team, then Jamison is the lungs. He keeps this team breathing, even when things aren't looking so good. There have been times when the team is looking like it's about to revert back to it's mid-90's form. Then Jamison steps in and breathes life back into the squad on the floor with a couple 3's and solid all-around play. His shooting, passing, rebounding and consistency have helped the Wiz immeasurably. That said, I wish he played inside a little more. At 6'9” and 235 lbs., he is big enough to bang inside, especially with the leaping advantage that he holds over a significant portion of the league. Despite his size and ability, he settles for jumpers and threes all the time. Don't get me wrong, we need him shooting. After all, he hit close to 40% of his 3PA last season. But if he could give us a little more inside, who knows what this team is capable of?

Andray Blatche – If you've never read anything that I have written, that's OK, I'll fill you in on how I feel about Andray Blatche. I think that he has as much potential as anyone in the league right now. For him, the best case scenario is turning into the next Kevin Garnett. In my mind, the worst case scenario for him is becoming a non-headcase version of Darius Miles. Even if he only develops into someone like D-Miles, what team in the league wouldn't want a 6'11” guy who can play the 3, 4 and 5 spots
coming off the bench? So I'm pretty much enamored with Blatche, but I don't want to make him out to be more than he is right now. Blatche is still extremely raw. He doesn't take very good care of the ball and it remains to be seen whether or not he can shoot. Honestly, that's about the worst I can say about him. He played six D-League games last season and showed that he can score, rebound and play D, so I'm not sure I can really criticize a guy who just turned 20 and has the potential that he has.

Darius Songaila – I like him a lot. He rebounds, plays D and has a solid mid-range game. He brings some toughness, which is something that this team desperately needs. On the other hand, I think we overpaid for him and that he isn't close to being the savior that some have made him out to be. He had trouble finding minutes last season in a Chicago frontcourt that featured Tyson Chandler, Michael Sweetney and Malik Allen. Only being able to grab 21 minutes per night with that kind of competition isn't a good sign. With Chicago, Songaila made about $2mil per year. In the last year of his contract, we're looking at paying over $4mil to a 33-year old forward who might not contribute much at all. Don't get me wrong, I like Songaila, but were we bidding against anyone for his services? I'm looking forward to his rebounding, free throw shooting and toughness, but I'm also not expecting too much.

Michael Ruffin – Not much to say here. He doesn't play much, but when he's on the floor he plays hard. We don't pay him a ton and nobody expects much either. So anything that he gives the Wiz is great.

There's the Rewind look at the Washington frontcourt. Even without Jared Jeffries, this should be a passable group of post/perimeter players. Don't get me started on our pivot men...

Team USA

2006-09-02T16:02:00.000-07:00

I know that I haven't written anything in over a week. I just got back to college and things have been pretty hectic. To make something of a comeback, I was working on a piece about the Wizards' forwards. That was before Team USA lost to Greece, so my honest look at Washington's frontcourt has to be put on hold. Before you read on, keep in mind that I have not yet seen the game, so feel free to say that I'm full of it.

First, let's make sure that we keep in mind that Greece is legitimately good. They are the European champs and have two players that will be in the NBA (Spanoulis and Shortsiantis). Greece is an outstanding team, but holy crap. Team USA should have run them off the court. The disparity in talent level and athleticism should be impossible for any team in the world to overcome. Apparently, it isn't as long as you play a tight zone and have an above-average shooting day. Pretty much everything that you read about Team USA over the next week is going to offer reasons why Team USA failed to win gold and what they need to do differently. You won't get that here, because I'm going to tell you what the underlying problem is: Incomplete Jordanification and Undeveloped Birdness.

Ignore the baggy shorts, the shoe deals and the endless marketing and endorsements. Today's NBA superstars try to play like MJ. The problem is, they haven't taken the best qualities of Jordan. Watching Jordan when they were growing up, today's NBA star wants to be The Man. When the team needs a pickup, today's star wants to score 15 points in a row to bring his team back in the game, or shut the door on the other team. Unfortunately, it seems like Wade, LeBron, Carmelo and everyone else have yet to understand that Jordan didn't always use his scoring to dominate. He often let his passing and defense do the talking.

MJ's passes to Paxson and Kerr to win titles showed how to be The Man without insisting on shooting every time. Even his 18-footer to beat Utah in 1998 came after Jordan stole the ball from Karl Malone. Some of MJ's best plays were'nt dunks or game winning shots. Some of my favorites are his passes on fast breaks where it seems impossible that he could have known where his teammate was. Or his blocked shots. If you've ever seen the clip of Washington-vintage Jordan blocking Ron Mercer's layup, you know what I'm talking about. See, you don't need to shoot all the time for the team to win or to show the crowd that you are the best player on the court. This lesson appears to be lost on today's star.

The second thing that I said was wrong with today's NBA star/Olympic representative is Undeveloped Birdness. I'm not going to get into everything that made Bird great (I don't have hours and hours to kill), but there are a few things that he did that our guys don't do. Larry Legend did the little things. I'm not talking about diving for loose balls and playing tough man-to-man D, I mean the more subtle things that only a few people actually notice. Things like trusting his teammates, not just moving without the ball, but moving to the correct spot on the floor. Bird knew that dribbling a lot isn't the way to win. He made quick passes and knew that a quick pass, followed by a cut, was going to get him an open shot. He knew how to play off-the-ball D on his man while also playing the passing lanes. Today's players do the big things that Bird did, like shoot, rebound and rack up assists, but the little things have been completely lost on them.

When Carmelo, Wade, LeBron, Chris Paul and so many others get the ball, they immediately put it on the floor. They each make sure to dribble a few times before they look to pass. They don't pass quickly enough, so they try to dribble-penetrate and then find an open man when the defense collapses. This definitely can be an effective approach, but it's not the best one, especially at the international level. Watch some of Bird's old games. When he stole Isiah Thomas' inbounds pass and hit DJ for a layup to move the Celtics on to the championship, how many dribbles did he take? None. LeBron would have tried to drive to the hoop and either dumped the ball to a teammate who isn't in a great position to score, hoisted up a bad shot on his own, or called a timeout. The same goes for just about anyone else on Team USA. How many titles have those guys won? They have one bronze together and one NBA ring. Forget about being in the same neighborhood, these guys aren't in the same country as Bird. Yet.

I know that I'm dumping on these guys, just like everyone else is right now, but I don't think that a lack of desire, or a me-first attitude, or anything like that killed them. I think that they just don't know yet why Jordan and Bird were great. Today's superstars are a steak from Outback. Yesterday's were steak from Ruth's Chris. Yeah, the Outback steak probably looks pretty similar, tastes good and gets the job done all-around. But if you can notice the subtle tastes and aftertastes of the Ruth's Chris steak, then you understand why Wade, LeBron, Carmelo and everyone else aren't getting the job done right now.

An Honest Look at the Roster

2006-08-22T17:39:00.000-07:00

As a Wizards fan, I (like many fans) sometimes convince myself of things that aren't actually going to happen. I start believing things like “if Andray Blatche gets some playing time, he could start to look like a young Kevin Garnett” and “Songaila is going to make our post game respectable”. I want to stay positive, but a little critical evaluation can be a good thing. With that in mind, here is my honest look at the backcourt.

Gilbert Arenas – He is one of the four best scorers in the league and out of those four, he is the second best passer (don't even tell me that Iverson and Kobe are less selfish). I really can't say enough about his talent, work ethic and leadership. I can say a little about what he needs to improve though. He tends to a dribble a little too much. Instead of making the quick pass, he sometimes decides to dribble and then try to find the open man. It generally works pretty well, he needs to pass more quickly and dribble less if the team wants to make the leap.

Antonio Daniels – He was a nice, if somewhat over-priced, signing last off-season. He passes well, takes care of the ball and plays hard. He hits his free throws and can guard point guards and shooting guards. I like his game, except that he can't hit a 3 to save his life. He shot under 23% last season. Given that this is an offense that hinges on outside shooting, we've got a problem here. I'm not saying he needs to be Tim Legler or Tracy Murray, but he shot a worse percentage last season than Zach Randolph. We can hide his crappy shooting if we have other good shooters on the floor. It would be nice though if he developed an outside shot.

Jarvis Hayes – Trade him right now. Even if it means giving him away for a 2nd round pick. He has had something like 37 knee surgeries and is never on the floor. And when he is playing, he sucks. He's got talent and he plays hard, but he hasn't developed at all due to his injuries. Looking back to the 2003 draft, we could have had Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Josh Howard or David West instead of Hayes. That's depressing. I don't blame him for not panning out like those other players, but we can't expect anything at all from him this season.

Donell Taylor – He can give us a few very mediocre minutes here and there, especially in garbage time. If he becomes a guy that, when I see him enter a game, I don't yell “awww crap!”, then I will be happy. He doesn't try to do too much or anything. He doesn't make boneheaded mistakes. Taylor just isn't any good. So he might help us a little, but I'm expecting him to be a non-factor.

DeShawn Stevenson – He is a lock-down style defender. That is to say, he plays good man-to-man defense but doesn't really play the passing lanes. He is basically the defensive opposite of Larry Hughes. It would be great if he lived up to his potential with Washington, but that probably isn't going to happen. He is only 25, but I'm nominating him for the Tim Thomas memorial Hall of Fame for players who don't live up to expectations. He adds defense and generally plays hard, but he needs to spend some time with Antonio Daniels this summer developing an outside shot. You'd think that a player with his athleticism would have developed trey-range by now, but I guess that's why I think of him as being a 6'5” Tim Thomas. He will give us solid defensive minutes at the 2, but he needs to really show something on the offensive end if he wants to help us much. Then again, he makes about fifty bucks a year, so I'd be pretty happy with just about anything positive from him.

So there is our backcourt. We've got one borderline superstar, two above average role players and two guys who should be worth only slightly more than stock in General Motors. I'm pretty happy with this, especially since we didn't break the bank with Stevenson. The problem that I think this group might run into is offensive ability. If Gil goes down, or has an off day, who is going to score in the backcourt? Besides Gil, we've got one guy who is always injured, one guy who is worthless and two guys who can't shoot. I like our best-case scenario, but our worst-case scenario is pretty terrifying. Next up: the forwards.

5 Reasons Why the Wizards Will Make The Leap

2006-08-19T16:43:00.000-07:00

Last post, I covered the reasons why the Wiz might not have the kind of season that they are capable of. There are definitely things that need to be improved upon such as defense and rebounding. Let me say right now that I don't think that the team really has any chance of sucking. I think they will make “The Leap” from being a team that is just trying to make the playoffs to a team that expects to get at least to the second round and has its sights set on playing for a Conference championship. Here are the five reasons why the Wizards will make “The Leap”:

#1. Experience
This is a team that has, for the most part, been together for a few years now and have won and lost together. They have made the playoffs two years in a row and are are starting to understand what the playoffs are all about. Their young guys (Arenas, Caron, Blatche, Hayes, Ramos) are a year older and their veterans (Jamison and Daniels) should provide some strong leadership. Basically, this is a team that has a better idea of what it's all about.

#2. Improved Defense
It was fairly obvious, even to the most casual observer, that the Wiz were completely inept on the defensive end of the court. We lost a solid defender in Jared Jeffries, but picked up a good lock-down guy in DeShawn Stevenson. Adding some post defense with the signing of Darius Songaila should help , too. What is going to make the most difference though, is just the increased emphasis on defense. Eddie Jordan is going to be a man on a mission when it comes to devising intelligent defensive schemes. And you better believe that EJ is going to be preaching D from day one. In fact, he might start hounding his guys before day one. I'm imagining Antawn Jamison being woken up in the middle of the night by his ringing cell phone. He picks up and it's Jordan; “Hey Antawn, just checking to make sure that you are dreaming of playing great defense next year”. While he's in a club, Gil gets a text message from EJ that reads “R U wtchin game flm and wrkin on D? ;)”. That's right, Jordan is going to be using the “winky face”.

#3. Better Interior Play
Really, the only way to go was up when it came to our inside play last season. Haywood and Etan are both reserve-quality players that get big minutes on this team and Jamison is a good inside-outside guy, but isn't going to provide the kind of inside presence that this team needs. Enter Darius Songaila. It's sad when a player like Darius Songaila is going to be a huge upgrade down low, but an upgrade he is. He likes to bang and is a capable rebounder. In addition to his post game, he's also got a half-way decent mid-range jumper. The improvement shouldn't be limited to the Songaila signing. Haywood and Ramos (although who knows what to expect from him) should improve a bit and the realization that the team needs to focus a little more on working the inside game should make for a decent improvement in this area.

#4. The Development of the Young Guys
From watching the FIBA Championships, Ramos seems like he may be ready to giving us a few minutes here and there. Gil will most likely continue his ascension into NBA super stardom. Caron improved by leaps and bounds last season and ought to be even better in the '06-'07 campaign. The real difference maker though, will be Andray Blatche. He showed flashes last year and seemed to be coming on strong in the Summer League. This season he will be bullet-free (lets hope), a year older, wiser and stronger, and should be hungry. With Jeffries gone, Blatche will get the chance to play and without a long-term deal yet, he's going to be busting his butt trying to show that he is worth some cash. If you are a Wizards fan and you aren't excited for the Arenas/Butler/Blatche era to really get rolling, then you are either brain dead, or in serious need of an alcohol-rehab program.

#5. The Management
We finally have professionals running the front office. Grunfeld and company may have the highest good move-to-idiotic move ratio in the league over the past two years. The trade for Caron Butler was so lopsided that it would have been vetoed in any fantasy league by a unanimous vote. Drafting Blatche will promise to be a great pick. Knowing how to efficiently address the team needs (defense and inside play) and realizing that Jeffries is not worth $30 mil are just a few of the moves that make Wizards fans finally sleep nightmare-free. In the past three years, he has dumped Stackhouse (who played well for Dallas last spring, but was an injured malcontent in D.C.), Laettner, Kwame, Devin Harris and Chucky Atkins. He has added Antawn, Caron, Gil, Antonio Daniels, Blatche, Pecherov and Michael Ruffin. All of that is comforting, because I know that if this team needs help, he's going to get help. I'd say that he's well on his way to making us all forget that he once traded Ray Allen for an elderly Gary Payton.

I'm not delusional. I don't see this team winning 50 games. We haven't won 50 games since the '78-'79 season, but these guys ought to come very close. I'm going to say right now that we win between 46 and 48 games this season. That's not yet putting them in a position to contend for a Conference title, but that's a hell of a long way from sucking.

5 Reasons Why the Wizards Could Suck Next Season

2006-08-18T07:44:00.000-07:00

I'm psyched for the season to start. The current squad promises be the best Wizards/Bullets team of the last 26 years. A solid nucleus, good role players and a sense of unity should make this season a great one. Let's emphasize the word “should”. This is a good team, but it is by no means guaranteed to be successful. So here are five reasons why the Wiz might suck.

#1. Horrendous D
The '05-'06 iteration of the Wizards was a sieve. Getting to the hoop was about as easy as making fun of Isiah Thomas. There were a few reasons why they couldn't stop anyone. First, there was a distinct lack of defensive-minded players on the roster. True, Caron Butler wasn't bad and Jeffries was solid, but he's gone now. Second, there was no inside presence at all. If you took it to the rack against the Wizards, your only concern aside from how hard Haywood is going to foul you (sadly, these weren't intentional; he just fouls everyone) was what kind of dunk you wanted to throw down. There was almost no risk that your shot would be blocked or even altered. Third, Eddie Jordan is an offensive coach. There wasn't a whole lot of emphasis put on defense and it showed. If defense wins championships, then this team might not win the Maryland high school state title.

#2. Lack of Rebounding
Who on the Wizards can rebound? Jamison is pretty decent. Caron isn't bad. For his size, Gil is very good. But there isn't anyone on the team that you can really count on to come down with a big rebound. What's more is that the Wizards will almost never out-rebound their opponents. They usually hang close, but it isn't that unusual for them to grab ten fewer boards per game than their opponents. It's very hard to win games, especially playoff games, without being good at rebounding. Look at the last ten title winners. The Bulls were committed to rebounding and had Rodman. The Spurs had two great rebounders in Robinson and Duncan. The Lakers had Shaq in his prime. The Pistons had Sheed and Big Ben. Obviously, this team falls a little short of those four in rebounding.

#3. Inside Presence
Our best interior player is Darius Songaila. Yeah, I'm scared too. Our best power forward (assuming you don't really count Antawn as a power forward) and center would be solid backups on almost any team in the NBA. This team is going to be great from the perimeter and on the fast break. But without an interior presence, who starts the fast break? Not that Drew Gooden is even that good, but who on our roster keeps him from going nuts? Who makes slashers think twice about taking it to the hole? Who keeps the defense honest by scoring inside to take pressure off the perimeter? Our only hope is the ghost of Wes Unseld.

#4. Injuries
We've got pretty good depth at the 1, 2 and 3. If one of our perimeter guys goes down, it will hurt, but it probably won't be catastrophic. If one of our front court players goes down, then we go from having a bad post presence to having none at all. The prospect of Calvin Booth seeing major minutes terrifies me. In fact, I can't think about it anymore; I've got to move on.

#5. Poor Coaching Decisions
I like EJ a lot. He has a great offensive mind and generally makes good decisions. There were times last season though, when I couldn't figure out why he had a certain lineup on the floor. It would be something like Gil, Daniels, Hayes, Caron and Jamison. Then for the next five minutes, they would get killed on the boards and get outscored. Then there was the Storey, Daniels, Hayes, Caron, Jeffries lineup that was so effective at giving up leads. Don't get me wrong; most of the time Jordan has the right players on the floor and he generally uses his timeouts well and does a good all-round job coaching. But every now and then he has a lineup out there that doesn't make any sense at all. If this team is going to move to the next level, EJ has to cut down on those lapses.

So there are five reasons why the Wizards could suck this season. Keep in mind that I don't think they will suck, which I'll talk about in my next post: “5 Reasons Why the Wizards Will Make The Leap”.

What do we do with PJ Ramos?

2006-08-14T22:30:00.000-07:00

The kid is huge; 7'3" and almost 290 lbs. He's also young(only 21) and aggressive. And he only makes about $700K per year. And yet, we still haven't found a good place for him. You'd think that a mobile big man would have an easy time finding minutes, but Ramos has been bouncing between the L and the NBDL. He played well in the minor league, averaging about 14 and 8 while shooting almost 59% from the field in 29 minutes per game. He still can't find a spot in the rotation, much less on the Wizards roster. So what do we do with him?

As one reader said "we have to trade him". That's certainly an option, but I'm not about to give up on a 21 year old who is huge and definitely has some tools to work with. Especially given how little he makes. I say that we ought to keep him and if we're going to trade anyone, let it be Calvin Booth. Ramos has too much potential to give up on him now. do we really want to see him go to another team and develop into a solid center? Even if he never puts up better than 12 and 8 with a block and a half per game, that is still better than anything that we have right now. I don't see him becoming a special player, but if he could put up Zaza Pachulia-like stats, then I'd be more than happy. Again, especially at his price.

According to Realgm.com, he is the 368th highest paid player in the league. Jerome James makes roughly six times as much, but who would you rather have? If you said James, then you are either crazy or you are Isiah Thomas(or both). It's hard to find anyone, especially a pivot to fill a roster spot for that kind of money. Then again, he does take up a roster spot that we may be able to use on someone else.

So what do we do with Ramos? Do we try to trade him? Or do we keep him and see if we can't dig up 5 minutes per game so that he can start to develop a little? What does everyone think?

Homeward Bound: Gilbert Arenas

2006-08-14T09:14:00.000-07:00

Jerry Colangelo, the architect of Team USA announced that Gil strained his groin and will miss the World Championships. So, as I wrote yesterday, he's not going to be one of the 12 to play in Japan. Maybe he can fly back home with Bruce Bowen after Bowen gets cut at the end of the week. Obviously, I'd prefer to see Gil tear apart the French National team and embarass Argentina for what they did to us at the Olympics, but this might be just as well.

Gil is piling up a lot of miles. He played 40 minutes per game in the '04-'05 season and this past season he ran 42 minutes per game. That's a lot of minutes. If the Wiz are going to go deep into the playoffs next year (and they are), then we're going to need a healthy, well rested Gilbert Arenas. Taking the rest of the summer off may be a blessing in disguise. We'll see though. Jamison has some serious mileage too, but if we are only going to have one Wizard representing the US, then I'd rather have Jamison play and Gil relax.

This groin pull, as long as it isn't anything serious, isn't a big deal and in the long run, this might be a good thing.

Team USA and the Wizards Rotation

2006-08-13T11:17:00.000-07:00

Well, so much for Carmelo missing a couple weeks and Antawn stepping in and showing what he's got. In the Team USA rout of Lithuania, Jamison did play 17 minutes and drop 13 points on only seven shots, so he's looking pretty good. Gil on the other hand... He only played 6 minutes and hit one out of two shots. Before the World Championships actually start, Team USA has to cut its roster from 14 to 12. Bruce Bowen is almost sure to get cut (might as well, by the time he completes the 3 year commitment, he'll be 38). Things aren't looking so good for Gil. The team is loaded with point guards and scorers and he hasn't really been playing that well, so he might be on a flight back home with Bowen. ESPN's Chris Sheridan is saying that Gil will probably get cut, so this has not been Gil's best summer ever. On the bright side, Songaila was pretty effective while his team was getting the smack-down. Anyways, enough about Team USA, lets get on to the Wizards rotation.

Here is the average minutes that our players should be seeing:

PG: Gil(24), Daniels(24)
SG: Caron(24), Stevenson(8), Gil(16)
SF: Antawn(22), Caron(12), Blatche(8), Stevenson(12)
PF: Songaila(20), Antawn(16), Blatche(6)
C: Haywood(28), Etan(14), Songaila(6)

Obviously, this is a very rough sketch of our nine man rotation. I left out guys like Ramos, Taylor and Storey. They will be getting minutes here are there, but they are unlikely to see much time consistently, so I didn't include them. I'm thinking that this looks like a solid team. Songaila gives us a better inside presence than we had last year and we should be able to give some decent minutes to Andray Blatche. Getting him minutes and developing him is going to be one of the keys to our future. Right as Jamison enters his decline in a few years, Blatche should be coming on strong for us, so putting him on the floor is going to be important. If you don't think so, let me refer you to the story of Darko Milicic. I for one, am very excited for the upcoming season. Adding guys like Songaila and Stevenson should make us a tougher defensive team and we still have the guns (Gil, Antawn and Caron) returning from last year. If we just get our rotation right, this is going to be a tough team to beat.

Down goes Carmelo! Down goes Carmelo!

2006-08-09T06:56:00.000-07:00

While barely hanging on to a victory over Brazil in one of the final exhibition games before Team USA goes to Japan, we lost Carmelo to a hyperextended knee. It's not a serious injury, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him sit out a couple weeks. If that's the case, then Antawn should see some more minutes. It's always good to see Wizards lighting it up around the world. Gil, Antawn and the rest of Team USA certainly is lighting it up.

Even while having an off-day against Brazil, who is probably one of the 5 best teams in the world, our guys pulled out a win. Something that struck me about that is how well Kirk Hinrich and Brad Miller have been playing. I already knew how good Miller is. He rebounds, has a good shot out to 24 feet, plays tough D and is a fantastic passer. Hinrich, on the other hand, has been a nice surprise.

I already knew that Hinrich was a solid player, but I considered him a 2nd-tier point guard before Team USA was assembled. But after watching him run the team for long stretches, hit clutch threes (like the one that put Team USA up on Brazil in the 4th) and sink his free throws, I've got a new appreciation for Hinrich. He still isn't quite a Jason Kidd or a Steve Nash, but he is right up there with the best pgs in the league. I guess I should have known how good he was after watching him give Dwayne Wade fits in the first round of this year's playoffs, but I still didn't realize how complete of a player he is. So that's been a nice surprise. OK, now I'll stop being Kirk's personal cheerleader. We've got other things to talk about, like the Wizards rotation for the coming year.

With pretty much the whole cast returning (minus Jeffries and plus Songaila and Stevenson), the team chemistry in Washington should be through the roof, while the talent level is only getting higher. But with so much talent on this roster, who is going to get minutes? Blatche clearly fits into the long-term plan, but how big a part of the team is he this year? Will Etan even get off the bench this season? So many questions remain about the rotation, too many to be addressed today, so stayed tuned...

Farewell Mr. Jeffries

2006-08-06T09:09:00.000-07:00

I can't tell you how refreshing it is to see our team actually run by professionals. I say this because Ernie Grunfeld is letting Jared Jeffries walk. This was a solid decision that should actually help the future of this team and it goes in direct contradiction to what our management would have done in the '90's. With Unseld at the helm, we would been bidding against ourselves and shelling out $70mil to watch Jeffries play 20 minutes a game for us. Those days, thankfully, are long gone. Grunfeld knows talent when he sees it and won't overpay for it (although Antonio Daniels is probably making a little too much).

Jeffries, as solid a defender as he is, just isn't worth the kind of cash that New York was offering. Grunfeld sees that and understands the other options that he has if the team needs a versatile forward. As I've harped on before, Blatche is going to be good, really good. Oleksiy Pecherov should be solid, too. So while I liked Jeffries game, we've got better options coming up. And they won't cost $6mil per year. At least, not yet. So Ernie Grunfeld is a Godsend to this team. But enough about him; what do the fans think?

This from the espn.com message boards:

"An easy, yet still intelligent move, by Wizards management."

"I'm glad we're not locked into that contract but I'm disappointed that we didn't get anything in return for him."

"We're gonna miss his versatility but not for 30 million."

At least on the ESPN boards, the reaction to Jeffries walking was overwhelmingly positive. The general consensus seems to be that Jeffries was a good contributor to this team and brought a lot to the table, but he was just too pricey. The fans also seem to be pretty psyched for the future. We aren't locked into any really bad contracts. We've got a great nucleus and we've got young talent that should contribute in a big way very soon. So farewell Mr. Jeffries, I hope you don't mind watching us go deep into the playoffs while you are resting at home after a 20-62 season.

Team USA and DeShawn

2006-08-04T06:03:00.000-07:00

For anyone who missed last night's Team USA win over Puerto Rico, it was ridiculous. I have not seen a team even half this good since the Dream Team. They hustled, they played great defense and shared the ball like the Celtics of the 1980's. I don't even know what more to say, except for why they are good. Aside from having better shooters than any recent Team USA, their passing is off the charts.

One of the things that made the original Dream Team great was their passing. They totally broke down opposing defenses and got a ton of fast breaks. That's exactly what today's team does. Arenas, LeBron, Wade, Hinrich, Joe Johnson (who is much better than I imagined), Chris Paul (ditto about him) and Brad Miller. All of those guys are outstanding passers. Even guys like Jamison and Battier are pretty decent at distributing the ball. I lost count of how many times the team made more than five passes and wound up with an easy layup or a dunk. And then there were the fast breaks. Between all the steals they had, the hustle and the passing, it seemed like we always had one guy going down court with nothing between him and the hoop. This was best exemplified by Dwayne Wade's windmill dunk, followed by a salute to the American soldiers in the crowd. Nice dunk, nice gesture. Anyways, I can't say enough about this group, except that last night I was pretty proud.

Now on to the Wiz. Arenas and Jamison played well last night and Ramos didn't look half-bad either. There was other news in Washington basketball besides Team USA. We signed DeShawn Stevenson to a 2-year deal. When I first saw that, I immediately thought "Nooooooooo. Why on earth would we want him?". Then I saw that he signed for the veteran minimum and I sort of changed my tune. Sort of. I'm not a huge Stevenson fan. Good defender, so-so offensive player. Don't we already have Antonio Daniels? At less than $1mil per year though, it's not so bad to have a little extra depth and this frees us up to dump Jarvis Hayes, which we have to do.

Hayes has, or had, great potential. Very good athlete, very good shooter and he is a hard worker. He also has Bernard King's knees. Mostly due to injury, (although he hasn't played that well when healthy) Hayes has been a bust for the Wizards. We have other areas that we could address by trading him, but we aren't going to get much for him. So if we can get an early 2nd rounder, I'm happy. That's one fewer perimeter player, which should open the door for Blatche. When needed, Caron Butler can always slide down and play shooting guard, while Blatche gets his shot at small forward. This will happen a lot easier though, if Hayes is out of the picture. So, long story short: signing DeShawn isn't the disaster that I was expecting, we need to get rid of Hayes and Team USA is incredible.

Should New York's Offer Be Matched?

2006-07-31T19:22:00.000-07:00

The Wiz are faced with a decision over the next few days: should the team match the New York Knicks' offer to Jared Jeffries and retain his services for another five years? Let him walk. Let him walk and be thankful that we will still have a lot of cap room for next offseason.

I'm thinking about the option of matching the Knicks' offer of $30 million over 5 years in terms of what this team will look like a few years from now. Three years from now, this team should be finding itself in a bind at the forward spots. Caron Butler, Andray Blatche, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov. Possibly even Antawn if he isn't too expensive. Where does Jeffries fit into that frontcourt? He would fit in as our #5 or #6 forward. I'm not so sure a third-stringer is worth $6mil a year. Scratch that. I'm positive that Jeffries isn't worth that. And, with a crowded front court in the next couple years, that could prevent Blatche and Pecherov from getting the minutes they need to really develop. Both players have a chance to be something special and giving them each 5 minutes per game isn't going to get them there. So you can see the point that I'm making here: keeping Jeffries could actually stunt the growth of this team. Of course, that isn't the only reason to let him go.

If Isiah Thomas is interested in giving a bunch of money to a player, it's probably best to run the other way. As General Manager of the Knicks, Thomas has signed an under-achieving, lazy Jerome James to a 5-year, $30 million contract. He signed a 33-year old recovering alcoholic in Vin Baker. He traded for Eddy Curry, who has about $40 mil coming his way over the next four years. I could go on and on. Basically, if Isiah wants to ensure that none of Jeffries' great grandchildren ever have to work, then that's a good indication that he's a player that Washington should steer clear of.

So if we let Jeffries sign with New York, where does this team go from here? First, it does not go knocking on DeShawn Stevenson's door. Do we really need a less-talented version of Antonio Daniels? The full plan will have to wait for another post, but I will say this: For the most part, we already have the pieces under contract.

Welcome to the Wizard Rewind!

2006-07-20T08:28:00.001-07:00

Wizard Rewind has just started up, but we look forward towards becoming your source for everything related to the Washington Wizards!

Come to us to hear the latest news about Antawn Jamison. Find out what Caron Butler does to help his teammates. Read why Gilbert Arenas is one of the best players currently in the NBA.

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